I have already written one retrospective essay on 2008 in Japanese politics, but I wanted to look back in more detail at this year's events and crystallize the year into a handful of lessons.As 2008 enters its final days, what have we learned about the state of the Japanese political system?First, and most importantly, the …
Month: December 2008
Mr. Watanabe’s rebellion
On Wednesday the House of Representatives voted on a DPJ-backed resolution calling for an immediate dissolution of the lower house followed by a general election.Watanabe Yoshimi broke with the LDP and voted for the resolution, backing his words with action. He stated that he was prepared for whatever punishment the LDP intends to mete out …
Endgame
As 2008 enters its final week, the LDP and Aso Taro, its beleaguered head, are being written off as doomed in the year to come.No one, it seems, is willing to offer an explanation for how the LDP can save itself in a general election. The LDP may yet win the general election, but its …
Alliance addenda
After seeing the response to my recent post on the US-Japan alliance, I find it necessary to develop a few ideas further.First, MTC rightly points out that an alliance based on the partnership of Japanese conservatives and their counterparts in Washington is by no means doomed, because the organizations pushing this line "deal death as …
The alliance is dead, long live the alliance
Barack Obama's inauguration is just about a month away. His transition team is gradually filling in cabinet-level positions. His Asia and Japan policy teams are as of yet unknown, however, leaving Japanese elites to continue to fret about Japan's place on the Obama administration's agenda.They have good reason to worry.The reasons to worry have nothing …
Continue reading The alliance is dead, long live the alliance
2008 in review
I have contributed a review of 2008 in Japanese politics to Néojaponisme. Check it out here.I'll be writing a more comprehensive review — like last year's — soon.
Political Japan awaits a black swan
"SOCIAL ENTROPY: A measure of the natural decay of the structure or of the disappearance of distinctions within a social system. Much of the energy consumed by a social organization is spent to maintain its structure, counteracting social entropy, e.g., through legal institutions, education, the normative consequences or television." – Krippendorff's Dictionary of CyberneticsThe LDP …
Slouching towards irrelevance?
Prime Minister Aso Taro, faced with dismal poll numbers, a potential rebellion within the LDP, and an economy galloping into recession, sought to stem the tide against him by announcing a second stimulus package at a press conference on Friday.The government's purpose is to ease the insecurities of the Japanese people, but also to make …
This is an ex-faction!
Speaking of predictions, the destruction of the Machimura faction is proceeding apace.Before the LDP's September election, I asked whether anyone thinks that "the Machimura faction, that 89-member monster of a faction that sits at the intersection of the LDP's divisions between 'neo-liberal' reformers, party leaders, and ideological conservatives, will survive this party election."Events appear to …
Can the LDP save itself?
In a vitriolic post at Shisaku, MTC goes after those who insist that despite the LDP's current crisis — which has only gotten worse since back in January when Fukuda Yasuo called it the worst since the LDP's founding — the LDP will recover as it has done before.I have encountered this argument all too …
Tobias S. Harris 