Jun Okumura raised some questions regarding the op-ed in the Wall Street Journal Asia that I co-wrote with Naomi Fink. Naomi has penned the following reply to Jun.I contest the points on fiscal policy as follows:If you do not count the Y6trn stimulus portion of the FY09 budget (which Jun Okumura has not) then you …
Author: Tobias S. Harris
Tobias Harris is Japan analyst at Teneo Intelligence. He is the author of a forthcoming biography of Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.
A DPJ government takes shape?
Apropos my comments on the probability of Fujii Hirohisa's being named finance minister in a Hatoyama government, Sankei has a long article speculating that to the three important posts of finance minister, foreign minister, and chief cabinet secretary, Hatoyama Yukio will appoint Fujii, Okada Katsuya, and Kan Naoto respectively. Okada, mentioned as a possible finance …
What I saw in Kagawa and Okayama
With less than a week until the Japanese people select a new House of Representatives and with it a new government, the only question under discussion by the media seems to be whether or not the DPJ will break the 300-seat threshold. Mainichi, for example, cited the possibility that the DPJ will reach 320 seats, …
Japan’s next finance minister?
As the DPJ was finalizing its proportional representation lists for the 30 August general election, one name was inserted at the last moment onto the party list in the South Kanto block: seventy-seven-year-old Fujii Hirohisa. Fujii had previously announced his retirement after a long career that included service in the finance ministry that ended at …
Op-ed on the DPJ and growth
The Wall Street Journal Asia has published an op-ed version of the paper I wrote with Naomi Fink.It's available here.
Weekend travel
After having surveyed the national election outlook, I've decided to take a short trip to check out a couple races that I think should be interesting: Kagawa's first district, where the DPJ's Ogawa Junya faces LDP incumbent Hirai Takuya; Okayama's second district, which features a race between DPJ incumbent Tsumura Keisuke, the LDP's Hagiwara Seiji, …
The DPJ can win a majority — but what will it mean?
Having tabulated the predictions made over the course of my election handbook, I think it's appropriate that I return and answer my initial question.Can the DPJ win an absolute majority?Based on my district-by-district predictions, I think the DPJ could win 279 seats, the LDP 159 seats, Komeito fifteen seats, the JCP and PNP seven seats …
Continue reading The DPJ can win a majority — but what will it mean?
Kyushu, a conservative bastion
This is the eleventh and final installment in my general election guide. For an explanation of my purpose in making this guide, see here. For previous installments, see here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, and here.The Kyushu regional block contains thirty-eight single-member districts spread over eight prefectures: Fukuoka, Saga, Nagasaki, Kumamoto, Oita, …
On CNBC Thursday
Viewers in Asia can catch me on CNBC Asia's Asia Squawk Box at 8:30am JST on Thursday.I'll link to video as soon as it's available online.
Tobias S. Harris 