The Tohoku regional block is comprised of Aomori, Miyagi, Akita, Yamagata, Fukushima — and Iwate, Ozawa Ichiro's "fiefdom." These six prefectures combine to elect thirty-nine Diet members, twenty-five from single-member districts and fourteen from proportional representation. In 2005, the LDP won seventeen of twenty-five SMDs, with the DPJ taking seven and an independent winning the …
Author: Tobias S. Harris
Tobias Harris is Japan analyst at Teneo Intelligence. He is the author of a forthcoming biography of Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.
2009 general election open thread
With eight days until the campaign officially begins, feel free to post things seen and heard around Japan.
Hokkaido, a DPJ stronghold
In 2005, the DPJ managed to win eight of twelve single-member districts in Hokkaido, while equaling the LDP with three of the block's eight proportional representation seats. By receiving three of eight seats, the DPJ in Hokkaido outperformed the DPJ nationwide, winning 33% of the vote and 37.5% of the seats, compared with 31.02% of …
Will the DPJ win a majority?: a survey of the 2009 general election
In 2007, I reviewed the twenty-nine single-seat upper house races and offered a prediction (or, rather, a range) that actually proved too optimistic as far as the LDP was concerned.Rather than review the races in the 300 single-member districts, I've decided that I will look at the state of the races in each of the …
Continue reading Will the DPJ win a majority?: a survey of the 2009 general election
On the Australia Network
My interview on the Japanese political situation for NewsHour on the Australia Network, ABC's overseas service, can be viewed here. Unfortunately it's not a direct link but a link to the NewsHour archives: the video is filed under "Japanese elections."
The Ozawa dilemma
Lurking in the background of the debate over how the DPJ will change the policymaking process should it take power is a question that cuts to the very heart of how the DPJ will govern: what will the DPJ do with Ozawa Ichiro?The idea that in a mere three months Hatoyama Yukio has imposed a …
The DPJ and the bureaucracy continue their dance
Sankei has a long and must-read article on the obstacles facing a DPJ government in implementing its plans for reforming the policymaking process.The article highlights divisions within the DPJ over how to proceed in reforming Japan's administration, especially budget-making authority. The pragmatism visible in other aspects of the DPJ's program is also visible in the …
Continue reading The DPJ and the bureaucracy continue their dance
Around the Internet
I recently recorded a podcast with W. David Marx (aka Marxy), impresario of Néojaponisme. Recorded at a busy Showa-themed izakaya in Shibuya, it's less a podcast than a chance to eavesdrop on our conversation, complete with the izakaya's background noise. (Podcast: Liberal Democratic Japan.)I spoke on a panel at the Foreign Correspondents' Club of Japan …
An LDP upset in the making?
The LDP continues to set the tone in the non-campaign campaign. Speaking in Hiroshima on the occasion of the sixty-fourth anniversary of the dropping of the atomic bomb, Prime Minister Aso Taro stressed the existence of "a country with nuclear weapons that could attack as our neighbor," and reiterated the importance of the US nuclear …
The DPJ needs to hone its message
By any measure, the DPJ enjoys a considerable advantage over the LDP with less than two weeks until the campaign officially begins on 18 August. It is ahead in polls, Hatoyama Yukio, its leader, is uniformly preferred to Prime Minister Aso Taro, and there is a widespread feeling that the public is disgusted enough by …
Tobias S. Harris 