Continuing with its thread of providing a more realistic assessment of China's military capabilities, Wired's Danger Room blog has published a three-part article by MIT researcher Geoffrey Forden that attempts to provide a realistic picture of the role that China's ASAT capabilities could play in a Sino-US war.Forden outlines the difficulties China would face in …
Author: Tobias S. Harris
Tobias Harris is Japan analyst at Teneo Intelligence. He is the author of a forthcoming biography of Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.
The year of the consumer
Perhaps in response to the DPJ's "consumer ombudsman" proposal — and the realization that urban support will be essential in a general election — the Fukuda government has indicated that the prime minister will announce the creation of a ministerial portfolio for consumer affairs in his policy speech opening the regular session of the Diet …
Deflating the China threat
The Danger Room's Noah Shactman points to a report by the Federation of American Scientists that notes that China's submarine fleet — a favorite bugbear of China hawks (see this report, for example) — was little more active in 2007 than it was in previous years.Without dismissing China's military modernization, reports like this are important …
The shape of the realignment to come?
Nakagawa Shoichi, former LDP Policy Affairs Research Council chairman, was recently interviewed in the Kyodo Weekly on the subject of his new study group.Not surprisingly, the "True Conservative Policy Research Group" is, according to Mr. Nakagawa, dedicated to keeping the flame of the Abe revolution alive.In explaining what true conservatism is, he said, "Japan stands …
Censure motion on hold for now
As the close of the Diet session approaches — and with it, the presumed re-passage of the new anti-terror bill in the HR — the DPJ has announced that it is reconsidering submitting an HC censure motion this session in response to the government's use of its supermajority. It will instead save this motion for …
Sarko and Abe
Glamorous romantic life aside, I find the parallels between former Prime Minister Abe Shinzo and French President Nicolas Sarkozy intriguing. (I previously explored this theme in this post from last July.)The parallel came to mind once again when I read this post by Arthur Goldhammer.Commenting on a recent Sarkozy press conference, Goldhammer wrote:...The "politics of …
The DPJ reorients itself
The DPJ, in a move that suggests that the shift I sensed in this post may be becoming a clear trend, has announced that it will submit a bill in the regular Diet session that proposes the creation of a "consumer ombudsman." The DPJ's plan envisions an independent official, appointed not by the government but …
The Iowa winners
I am back to New York after my sojourn in Tokyo.In honor of my return to the US, here are links to a couple posts at The Reality-Based Community on Barack Obama and former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, written by Steven Teles, a former professor of mine. I particularly like his dissection of the sheer …
Is the Mainichi poll right?
Considerable discussion has surrounded a new Mainichi Shimbun poll showing that 46% of respondents desire a DPJ victory in a general election, compared with only 33% for the LDP.The same poll also showed that respondents would overwhelmingly (51%) vote on the basis of "policy," which may very well mean "pensions." Only 3% say they would …
Fukuda in charge
Contradicting reports leaked while he was out of the country, Mr. Fukuda has exhibited once again how he differs from his predecessor by asserting control of government and party and declaring that he will not in fact reshuffle his cabinet at the end of this Diet session (HT: Shisaku).It's not entirely clear who suggested to …
Tobias S. Harris 