In 2005, the DPJ managed to win eight of twelve single-member districts in Hokkaido, while equaling the LDP with three of the block's eight proportional representation seats. By receiving three of eight seats, the DPJ in Hokkaido outperformed the DPJ nationwide, winning 33% of the vote and 37.5% of the seats, compared with 31.02% of …
Category: Observing Japan Blog
Will the DPJ win a majority?: a survey of the 2009 general election
In 2007, I reviewed the twenty-nine single-seat upper house races and offered a prediction (or, rather, a range) that actually proved too optimistic as far as the LDP was concerned.Rather than review the races in the 300 single-member districts, I've decided that I will look at the state of the races in each of the …
Continue reading Will the DPJ win a majority?: a survey of the 2009 general election
On the Australia Network
My interview on the Japanese political situation for NewsHour on the Australia Network, ABC's overseas service, can be viewed here. Unfortunately it's not a direct link but a link to the NewsHour archives: the video is filed under "Japanese elections."
The Ozawa dilemma
Lurking in the background of the debate over how the DPJ will change the policymaking process should it take power is a question that cuts to the very heart of how the DPJ will govern: what will the DPJ do with Ozawa Ichiro?The idea that in a mere three months Hatoyama Yukio has imposed a …
The DPJ and the bureaucracy continue their dance
Sankei has a long and must-read article on the obstacles facing a DPJ government in implementing its plans for reforming the policymaking process.The article highlights divisions within the DPJ over how to proceed in reforming Japan's administration, especially budget-making authority. The pragmatism visible in other aspects of the DPJ's program is also visible in the …
Continue reading The DPJ and the bureaucracy continue their dance
Around the Internet
I recently recorded a podcast with W. David Marx (aka Marxy), impresario of Néojaponisme. Recorded at a busy Showa-themed izakaya in Shibuya, it's less a podcast than a chance to eavesdrop on our conversation, complete with the izakaya's background noise. (Podcast: Liberal Democratic Japan.)I spoke on a panel at the Foreign Correspondents' Club of Japan …
An LDP upset in the making?
The LDP continues to set the tone in the non-campaign campaign. Speaking in Hiroshima on the occasion of the sixty-fourth anniversary of the dropping of the atomic bomb, Prime Minister Aso Taro stressed the existence of "a country with nuclear weapons that could attack as our neighbor," and reiterated the importance of the US nuclear …
The DPJ needs to hone its message
By any measure, the DPJ enjoys a considerable advantage over the LDP with less than two weeks until the campaign officially begins on 18 August. It is ahead in polls, Hatoyama Yukio, its leader, is uniformly preferred to Prime Minister Aso Taro, and there is a widespread feeling that the public is disgusted enough by …
What’s in a name?
With his party's launch scheduled for 8 August, Watanabe Yoshimi has finally revealed its name.Minna no tō.Apparently the official English translation will be "Your Party." I'm not sure which is worse, the name in the original Japanese or its translation. I realize that Japanese parties have run the gamut when it comes to names, and …
Anticipated reactions
The ministry of finance, its ears filled with the ringing of revolution (or at least administrative reform), appears to be engaging in a classic case of anticipated reaction to the prospect of a DPJ government or an LDP government that could take its promise of "cutting waste" seriously. Accordingly, it has instructed requesting ministries to …
Tobias S. Harris 