In a survey of candidates' political attitudes, Mainichi found that DPJ and Komeito candidates overlapped more than Komeito and LDP or LDP and DPJ candidates. Whether the policy affinities between DPJ and Komeito candidates presages cooperation between the two parties after the election will depend on other factors, but what interested me about this survey …
Continue reading The DPJ contemplates its opening moves with the US
The general election is still six days away, but despite pernicious negative campaigning across Japan, the LDP seems to be incapable of reversing what the DPJ has taken to calling — switching from a meteorological metaphor to a geological metaphor — a "tectonic shift."The LDP's heavyweights are pinned down defending their own districts...Koizumi says once …
Continue reading The election will be cathartic, but catharsis is short-lived
In the current issue of the Economist, the news magazine calls particular attention to comments by Hatoyama Yukio in an article in the September issue of Voice called "My Political Philosophy." (I've gotten so accustomed to Japanese magazines not putting content online that I did not even bother to check whether it was.) Hatoyama, the …
With less than a week until the Japanese people select a new House of Representatives and with it a new government, the only question under discussion by the media seems to be whether or not the DPJ will break the 300-seat threshold. Mainichi, for example, cited the possibility that the DPJ will reach 320 seats, …
As the DPJ was finalizing its proportional representation lists for the 30 August general election, one name was inserted at the last moment onto the party list in the South Kanto block: seventy-seven-year-old Fujii Hirohisa. Fujii had previously announced his retirement after a long career that included service in the finance ministry that ended at …
After having surveyed the national election outlook, I've decided to take a short trip to check out a couple races that I think should be interesting: Kagawa's first district, where the DPJ's Ogawa Junya faces LDP incumbent Hirai Takuya; Okayama's second district, which features a race between DPJ incumbent Tsumura Keisuke, the LDP's Hagiwara Seiji, …
Having tabulated the predictions made over the course of my election handbook, I think it's appropriate that I return and answer my initial question.Can the DPJ win an absolute majority?Based on my district-by-district predictions, I think the DPJ could win 279 seats, the LDP 159 seats, Komeito fifteen seats, the JCP and PNP seven seats …
Continue reading The DPJ can win a majority — but what will it mean?
This is the eleventh and final installment in my general election guide. For an explanation of my purpose in making this guide, see here. For previous installments, see here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, and here.The Kyushu regional block contains thirty-eight single-member districts spread over eight prefectures: Fukuoka, Saga, Nagasaki, Kumamoto, Oita, …
This is the tenth installment in my general election guide. For an explanation of my purpose in making this guide, see here. For previous installments, see here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, and here.The Shikoku regional block includes Tokushima, Kagawa, Ehime and Kochi prefectures. Combined, they elect thirteen representatives from single-member districts and …
Tobias S. Harris 