In 2005, the DPJ managed to win eight of twelve single-member districts in Hokkaido, while equaling the LDP with three of the block's eight proportional representation seats. By receiving three of eight seats, the DPJ in Hokkaido outperformed the DPJ nationwide, winning 33% of the vote and 37.5% of the seats, compared with 31.02% of …
Tag: 2009 general election
Will the DPJ win a majority?: a survey of the 2009 general election
In 2007, I reviewed the twenty-nine single-seat upper house races and offered a prediction (or, rather, a range) that actually proved too optimistic as far as the LDP was concerned.Rather than review the races in the 300 single-member districts, I've decided that I will look at the state of the races in each of the …
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The Ozawa dilemma
Lurking in the background of the debate over how the DPJ will change the policymaking process should it take power is a question that cuts to the very heart of how the DPJ will govern: what will the DPJ do with Ozawa Ichiro?The idea that in a mere three months Hatoyama Yukio has imposed a …
An LDP upset in the making?
The LDP continues to set the tone in the non-campaign campaign. Speaking in Hiroshima on the occasion of the sixty-fourth anniversary of the dropping of the atomic bomb, Prime Minister Aso Taro stressed the existence of "a country with nuclear weapons that could attack as our neighbor," and reiterated the importance of the US nuclear …
The DPJ needs to hone its message
By any measure, the DPJ enjoys a considerable advantage over the LDP with less than two weeks until the campaign officially begins on 18 August. It is ahead in polls, Hatoyama Yukio, its leader, is uniformly preferred to Prime Minister Aso Taro, and there is a widespread feeling that the public is disgusted enough by …
The LDP opts for fear
With less than a month to the general election, Aso Taro and the LDP continue to face what looks like certain defeat. The DPJ continues to enjoy a sizable and solid lead in public opinion polls, the latest being an Asahi poll that showed the DPJ favored in the proportional representation race by a margin …
The LDP’s newspeak
At a poorly organized press conference at LDP headquarters Friday evening, the LDP released its manifesto for the 2009 general election.The problem with having governed a country for as long as the LDP has is that any policy proposal can be met with the question, "If this is so important, why haven't you already done …
The DPJ will bring the ships home — and open Japan’s economy to the US?
After weeks of signs that the DPJ might wholly embrace the foreign policy status quo, Hatoyama Yukio announced on Wednesday that, when the current special measures law for the deployment of Maritime Self-Defense Forces (MSDF) refueling ships in the Indian Ocean in support of coalition activities in Afghanistan expires in January, a DPJ-led government would …
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The DPJ unveils its manifesto (part two)
This post continues the analysis of the DPJ's 2009 general election manifesto, which I began in this post.Child care and education: The centerpiece of the DPJ's child care program is obviously its child allowance plan, amounting to 26,000 yen per month per child until the end of middle school. The party plans to provide half …
The DPJ unveils its manifesto (part one)
At an event at the Hotel New Otani in Tokyo Monday evening the DPJ released its 2009 general election manifesto to the public.Running to twenty-four pages, the manifesto is centered around five major areas: (1) cutting waste (essentially political and administrative reform); (2) child care and education; (3) pensions and health care; (4) regionalization; and …
Tobias S. Harris 