In 2007, I reviewed the twenty-nine single-seat upper house races and offered a prediction (or, rather, a range) that actually proved too optimistic as far as the LDP was concerned.Rather than review the races in the 300 single-member districts, I've decided that I will look at the state of the races in each of the …
Continue reading Will the DPJ win a majority?: a survey of the 2009 general election
Lurking in the background of the debate over how the DPJ will change the policymaking process should it take power is a question that cuts to the very heart of how the DPJ will govern: what will the DPJ do with Ozawa Ichiro?The idea that in a mere three months Hatoyama Yukio has imposed a …
Sankei has a long and must-read article on the obstacles facing a DPJ government in implementing its plans for reforming the policymaking process.The article highlights divisions within the DPJ over how to proceed in reforming Japan's administration, especially budget-making authority. The pragmatism visible in other aspects of the DPJ's program is also visible in the …
Continue reading The DPJ and the bureaucracy continue their dance
The LDP continues to set the tone in the non-campaign campaign. Speaking in Hiroshima on the occasion of the sixty-fourth anniversary of the dropping of the atomic bomb, Prime Minister Aso Taro stressed the existence of "a country with nuclear weapons that could attack as our neighbor," and reiterated the importance of the US nuclear …
By any measure, the DPJ enjoys a considerable advantage over the LDP with less than two weeks until the campaign officially begins on 18 August. It is ahead in polls, Hatoyama Yukio, its leader, is uniformly preferred to Prime Minister Aso Taro, and there is a widespread feeling that the public is disgusted enough by …
The ministry of finance, its ears filled with the ringing of revolution (or at least administrative reform), appears to be engaging in a classic case of anticipated reaction to the prospect of a DPJ government or an LDP government that could take its promise of "cutting waste" seriously. Accordingly, it has instructed requesting ministries to …
With less than a month to the general election, Aso Taro and the LDP continue to face what looks like certain defeat. The DPJ continues to enjoy a sizable and solid lead in public opinion polls, the latest being an Asahi poll that showed the DPJ favored in the proportional representation race by a margin …
At a poorly organized press conference at LDP headquarters Friday evening, the LDP released its manifesto for the 2009 general election.The problem with having governed a country for as long as the LDP has is that any policy proposal can be met with the question, "If this is so important, why haven't you already done …
After weeks of signs that the DPJ might wholly embrace the foreign policy status quo, Hatoyama Yukio announced on Wednesday that, when the current special measures law for the deployment of Maritime Self-Defense Forces (MSDF) refueling ships in the Indian Ocean in support of coalition activities in Afghanistan expires in January, a DPJ-led government would …
Continue reading The DPJ will bring the ships home — and open Japan’s economy to the US?
This post continues the analysis of the DPJ's 2009 general election manifesto, which I began in this post.Child care and education: The centerpiece of the DPJ's child care program is obviously its child allowance plan, amounting to 26,000 yen per month per child until the end of middle school. The party plans to provide half …
Tobias S. Harris 