I have already written one retrospective essay on 2008 in Japanese politics, but I wanted to look back in more detail at this year's events and crystallize the year into a handful of lessons.As 2008 enters its final days, what have we learned about the state of the Japanese political system?First, and most importantly, the …
Tag: DPJ
Mr. Watanabe’s rebellion
On Wednesday the House of Representatives voted on a DPJ-backed resolution calling for an immediate dissolution of the lower house followed by a general election.Watanabe Yoshimi broke with the LDP and voted for the resolution, backing his words with action. He stated that he was prepared for whatever punishment the LDP intends to mete out …
Endgame
As 2008 enters its final week, the LDP and Aso Taro, its beleaguered head, are being written off as doomed in the year to come.No one, it seems, is willing to offer an explanation for how the LDP can save itself in a general election. The LDP may yet win the general election, but its …
Political Japan awaits a black swan
"SOCIAL ENTROPY: A measure of the natural decay of the structure or of the disappearance of distinctions within a social system. Much of the energy consumed by a social organization is spent to maintain its structure, counteracting social entropy, e.g., through legal institutions, education, the normative consequences or television." – Krippendorff's Dictionary of CyberneticsThe LDP …
Can the LDP save itself?
In a vitriolic post at Shisaku, MTC goes after those who insist that despite the LDP's current crisis — which has only gotten worse since back in January when Fukuda Yasuo called it the worst since the LDP's founding — the LDP will recover as it has done before.I have encountered this argument all too …
The fall
The Aso cabinet is in free fall.The Yomiuri Shimbun has released its December public opinion poll, which found that not only has the Aso cabinet's approval rating fallen by half since the beginning of November (from 40.5% to 20.9%), but the cabinet's disapproval rating rose by twenty-five points to 66.7% during the same span of …
Conservatives, Clientelists, and Koizumians
Asahi has published a long article illustrating the feeling of crisis that has descended upon the LDP, especially following Aso Taro's disastrous showing in the latest Nikkei poll (discussed here).After months of building, it appears that the dissolution of the LDP may finally be in motion.The LDP can be roughly divided into three broad groupings, …
Continue reading Conservatives, Clientelists, and Koizumians
The center cannot hold
A new Nikkei-TV Tokyo poll conducted at the end of November found that Prime Minister Aso Taro's approval rating is in free fall.According to the poll, Mr. Aso's approval rating fell seventeen points to 31%, while his disapproval rating rose nineteen points to 62%. Twice as many respondents oppose the government's plan for a new …
The LDP will lose the next general election
A mere two months into Aso Taro's premiership, some LDP members are already looking for a way to throw him overboard.Mainichi reports that the most vigorous criticism is from the party's young reformists — not surprisingly, as they fear for their political lives — but the Mainichi article goes on to quote various senior LDP …
Continue reading The LDP will lose the next general election
Aso in a tailspin
Prime Minister Aso Taro is in Peru for this year's APEC summit, a summit that will undoubtedly be an even greater exercise in futility than usual.At home, his administration is faltering.He is under fire from within the LDP for recent gaffes. (It was only a matter of time before Mr. Aso talked without thinking.) The …
Tobias S. Harris 