Having tabulated the predictions made over the course of my election handbook, I think it's appropriate that I return and answer my initial question.Can the DPJ win an absolute majority?Based on my district-by-district predictions, I think the DPJ could win 279 seats, the LDP 159 seats, Komeito fifteen seats, the JCP and PNP seven seats …
Continue reading The DPJ can win a majority — but what will it mean?
This is the eleventh and final installment in my general election guide. For an explanation of my purpose in making this guide, see here. For previous installments, see here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, and here.The Kyushu regional block contains thirty-eight single-member districts spread over eight prefectures: Fukuoka, Saga, Nagasaki, Kumamoto, Oita, …
This is the tenth installment in my general election guide. For an explanation of my purpose in making this guide, see here. For previous installments, see here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, and here.The Shikoku regional block includes Tokushima, Kagawa, Ehime and Kochi prefectures. Combined, they elect thirteen representatives from single-member districts and …
One thing that the Japanese press provides is copious amounts of numbers. Within hours of the start of the campaign Tuesday the media released data on the demographics of the 1374 candidates who will be vying for office.A few figures struck me as particularly important.It will be an election based on direct contests between the …
After nearly a month of "phony" campaigning — passed quickly, didn't it? — the campaign for the 30 August general election began today as candidates filed their paperwork and parties submitted their lists for proportional representation voting. The main difference from now is simply that the long list of restrictions included the Public Elections law …
Growth or aid, Yomiuri tells us, is the key point of difference between government and opposition manifestos. The LDP wants to promote economic growth, while the DPJ stresses protection for citizens. Sankei says the same regarding Monday's debate among party leaders.All too often in recent months DPJ leaders have encouraged the idea that the LDP …
This is the ninth installment in my general election guide. For an explanation of my purpose in making this guide, see here. For previous installments, see here, here, here, here, here, here, here, and here.The Chugoku regional block, at the western end of the island of Honshu, is comprised of Tottori, Shimane, Okayama, Hiroshima, and …
Continue reading Chugoku, a conservative kingdom in decline?
This is the eighth installment in my general election guide. For an explanation of my purpose in making this guide, see here. For previous installments, see here, here, here, here, here, here and here.The Kinki regional block, which includes Shiga prefecture, Kyoto, Osaka, and Hyogo, Nara, and Wakayama prefectures, elects forty-eight representatives from single-member districts …
At a press conference over the weekend, Okada Katsuya, the DPJ's secretary-general stressed that because Hatoyama will be winning the mandate for the party, Hatoyama should serve a full four-year term (which, Okada stated, a DPJ government will serve so that it is able to accomplish its goals).After four prime ministers in four years, I …
Tobias S. Harris 