With less than a week until the Japanese people select a new House of Representatives and with it a new government, the only question under discussion by the media seems to be whether or not the DPJ will break the 300-seat threshold. Mainichi, for example, cited the possibility that the DPJ will reach 320 seats, …
Tag: Japanese politics
Japan’s next finance minister?
As the DPJ was finalizing its proportional representation lists for the 30 August general election, one name was inserted at the last moment onto the party list in the South Kanto block: seventy-seven-year-old Fujii Hirohisa. Fujii had previously announced his retirement after a long career that included service in the finance ministry that ended at …
Op-ed on the DPJ and growth
The Wall Street Journal Asia has published an op-ed version of the paper I wrote with Naomi Fink.It's available here.
The DPJ can win a majority — but what will it mean?
Having tabulated the predictions made over the course of my election handbook, I think it's appropriate that I return and answer my initial question.Can the DPJ win an absolute majority?Based on my district-by-district predictions, I think the DPJ could win 279 seats, the LDP 159 seats, Komeito fifteen seats, the JCP and PNP seven seats …
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Kyushu, a conservative bastion
This is the eleventh and final installment in my general election guide. For an explanation of my purpose in making this guide, see here. For previous installments, see here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, and here.The Kyushu regional block contains thirty-eight single-member districts spread over eight prefectures: Fukuoka, Saga, Nagasaki, Kumamoto, Oita, …
Shikoku, the LDP on the defensive
This is the tenth installment in my general election guide. For an explanation of my purpose in making this guide, see here. For previous installments, see here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, and here.The Shikoku regional block includes Tokushima, Kagawa, Ehime and Kochi prefectures. Combined, they elect thirteen representatives from single-member districts and …
Campaign numbers
One thing that the Japanese press provides is copious amounts of numbers. Within hours of the start of the campaign Tuesday the media released data on the demographics of the 1374 candidates who will be vying for office.A few figures struck me as particularly important.It will be an election based on direct contests between the …
The campaign begins
After nearly a month of "phony" campaigning — passed quickly, didn't it? — the campaign for the 30 August general election began today as candidates filed their paperwork and parties submitted their lists for proportional representation voting. The main difference from now is simply that the long list of restrictions included the Public Elections law …
Chugoku, a conservative kingdom in decline?
This is the ninth installment in my general election guide. For an explanation of my purpose in making this guide, see here. For previous installments, see here, here, here, here, here, here, here, and here.The Chugoku regional block, at the western end of the island of Honshu, is comprised of Tottori, Shimane, Okayama, Hiroshima, and …
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Tobias S. Harris 