With Vice President Cheney in Tokyo to reassure the Abe Cabinet that the US "understands" Japan's need for progress on abductions, it is worthwhile to look at a couple essays that look into the conditions surrounding the preliminary six-party agreement reached in Beijing.First, in the Washington Post, Philip Zelikow, onetime Condoleeza Rice co-author and until …
Author: Tobias S. Harris
Tobias Harris is Japan analyst at Teneo Intelligence. He is the author of a forthcoming biography of Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.
Courageous or foolish?
The big story in political Japan today is that the drop in the rate of support for the Abe Cabinet has continued unabated, with the Asahi poll finding that the rate of support has dipped below the rate of people actively oppose to the cabinet.What I found most interesting, however, was the Yomiuri poll (in …
Interest rates, again
The Bank of Japan is due to consider once more tomorrow whether it is the right time to raise Japan's interest rates again.The last time, you may recall, the Bank's policy meeting was surrounded by a storm of debate surrounding comments by senior LDP and government officials questioning the wisdom of raising rates again (discussed …
Green on US Asia Policy
I didn't catch this until today, but apparently Michael Green, CSIS Japan Chair and participant in the drafting of the latest Armitage-Nye Report, had an op-ed on US Asia Policy in the Washington Post last Tuesday (via CSIS).The title pretty much says it all: "America's Quiet Victories in Asia."Green's point is that the US position …
Feeling the chill
The chill to which I'm referring, of course, is the chill that has set in between Tokyo and Washington.Without looking particularly hard, I found two very clear signs of a growing appreciation among Japanese opinion makers that the US-Japan alliance is experiencing a bit of turbulence.On the front page of today's Yomiuri, in an article …
Dissecting the second Armitage-Nye Report, part 3
This is the third of three posts looking at the contents of the newly released second Armitage-Nye Report (the first two can be found here and here). An article about the report can be read here from the FT, which remains the best international English-language source of Japan-related news. (And the report can be downloaded …
Continue reading Dissecting the second Armitage-Nye Report, part 3
Dissecting the second Armitage-Nye Report, part 2
Continuing from my previous post, this post will focus on the second Armitage-Nye Report's vision of Asia. My thoughts on the report's recommendations for the US-Japan alliance can be read here. (The report can be downloaded from CSIS here.)All of the report's predictions and policy recommendations stem from a principle stated on its first page: …
Continue reading Dissecting the second Armitage-Nye Report, part 2
Dissecting the second Armitage-Nye Report, part 1
Having read the new Armitage-Nye Report published by CSIS -- once again, available here -- I shall, as promised, provide more thorough commentary on its contents.As previously noted, the report is subtitled "Getting Asia Right Through 2020," with its purpose being to outline US Asia policy for the next two to three presidential administrations, regardless …
Continue reading Dissecting the second Armitage-Nye Report, part 1
The Second Armitage-Nye Report
Published by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, the report can be downloaded here. The event launching the report can be viewed or listened to at the same site.I have only scanned the report, but compared to the initial 2000 report, it is much more focused on shaping the region (hence the subtitle, "Getting …
What a difference a year makes
A year ago I was throwing myself into work on my M.Phil dissertation, which analyzed change in the US-Japan alliance since the end of the cold war. Those changes continued right up through the moment of submission (North Korea's missile test was the week before the deadline).The alliance seemed like it was bounding from strength …
Tobias S. Harris 