The campaign is in its final days, the headlines continue to point to a disastrous loss for the LDP and suggest that even Komeito might lose a couple seats — and yet even if the DPJ wins, the outcome and consequences of the election are far from clear.First, though, just some thoughts about how many …
Tag: DPJ
Democracy is the issue
The DPJ appears to be advancing on all fronts, pushing hard even in "conservative kingdoms" like Kagoshima Prefecture in Kyushu, the surprisingly competitive election in Kagoshima being the subject of an article in today's Yomiuri (surprise! not online).If the campaign continues this way until Sunday, even my worst-case scenario prediction will likely miss high.Not surprisingly, …
Viva the lifestyle restoration!
Jun Okumura gives a thorough fisking to a BBC article that completely misses what's actually going on in this election campaign. In fact, the article seems to be little more than a bundle of cliches strung together with, as Jun notes, a few illustrative anecdotes.All the BBC had to do to get this story right …
Who misses Koizumi more, the Japanese people or the foreign press?
This week's Economist and today's FT both carry articles discussing the shadow cast by former Prime Minister Koizumi over the Upper House elections — and over his hapless and, according to Mr. Koizumi, kawaiso successor.I have no doubt that there are segments of public opinion and sections of the LDP that would be glad to …
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Rural Japan, elections, and political change
Over at the Social Science Japan forum maintained by the Institute of Social Science at the University of Tokyo — the subdued, scholarly alternative to NBR's US-Japan forum — Paul Midford of the Norwegian University of Science and Technology has sparked an interesting discussion, subsequently contributed to by Ethan Scheiner of UC-Davis (and author of …
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Is the DPJ losing steam?
The DPJ's leadership, apparently looking at the same material I've been looking at, only more so, has concluded that its previously stated aim of fifty-five seats in the July 29 Upper House elections is too high. Says Mr. Ozawa, "In conditions like these, we will not reach our target of fifty-five seats."What I find interesting …
Keys to victory
With less than two weeks to election day, the campaign is beginning to take shape. Allow me to play John Madden (substitute a TV sports analyst of your choice) for a moment and give you what I think are the LDP's and the DPJ's Keys to Victory.Insert flashy opening montage + brassy theme music here.For …
Looking at the 2007 single-seat districts
Over at Liberal Japan, Matt points to an article in the Yomiuri Shimbun pointing to a poll that shows DPJ support rising in both major cities and smaller cities and towns in rural areas. Based on this, he concludes — emphatically, by way of music videos — that the election is bound to be a …
Is the government trying to lose the election?
Facing criticism about his government's decision to postpone discussion about the consumption tax to the autumn, Prime Minister Abe has decided that instead of doing his best George H.W. Bush impersonation — "read my lips" — he has decided to be ambivalent: "I will not say that we will not raise the consumption tax rate."Meanwhile, …
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Campaigning starts in earnest
With the campaign (unofficially) underway — thank you, public elections law — we are now in for a month of maneuvering and campaigning as government and opposition camps push for the seats necessary for an Upper House majority. Yomiuri's latest poll showed the DPJ enjoying a three-point edge over the LDP in proportional representation (25% …
Tobias S. Harris 