Is the DPJ losing steam?

The DPJ’s leadership, apparently looking at the same material I’ve been looking at, only more so, has concluded that its previously stated aim of fifty-five seats in the July 29 Upper House elections is too high. Says Mr. Ozawa, “In conditions like these, we will not reach our target of fifty-five seats.”

What I find interesting is that the pattern of support identified by Secretary-General Hatoyama follows pretty closely with the predictions I made in my analysis of the twenty-nine single-seat districts: “In Tochigi and the Sea of Japan coast, ‘a good environment is developing’ (Mr. Hatoyama) and support is strengthening. They are thinking about plans to shore up [support] in closely combated Chugoku [central-southern Honshu], Shikoku, and Kyushu.”

By shoring up support, of course, the DPJ triumverate means that the obstacles it is facing in the south of Japan are substantial, contrary to the media mood (even Yomiuri, albeit ruefully) that seemed to make a DPJ landslide a foregone conclusion. Yomiuri made its own contribution Tuesday to the reassessment of the DPJ’s election prospects with an article about the turmoil among the DPJ and the SDP in Kyushu (although the article seems to have vanished from the Yomiuri website).

Less than twelve days to go…is the DPJ running out of steam, or is there a second (head)wind to come before the election day?

(For more election speculation, check out this post by Adamu.)

One thought on “Is the DPJ losing steam?

  1. Obsever – You want to talk about a (head)wind for the Democrats?How about a just-appointed, scandal-plagued minister showing up in public with a patched up face? Who when asked how the hell he got hurt responds with \”Taishita koto wa nai\”?Oh brother, talk about \”Events, dear boy, events…\”

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